Ricketts leads in poll released by campaign - Omaha World-Herald
As the Republican U.S. Senate primary race entered its final three weeks Wednesday, Pete Ricketts’ campaign released a poll that indicated he was leading his two rivals.
The Ricketts poll, conducted last week by the same polling company used by President Bush in 2004, indicated that Ricketts was ahead of former attorney general Don Stenberg, 43 percent to 33 percent, with David Kramer third at 7 percent.
If these numbers are correct, this comes as a surprise to a lot of people (including me). Maybe you can buy an election in Nebraska. But keep in mind where this poll came from. You should always be skeptical of “internal polling.” I conducted an internal poll last night of a likely GOP primary voter, and it revealed that I was leading Ricketts, Stenberg, and Kramer (I had 100% of the vote).
My favorite paragraph in the story…
Ricketts, a former Ameritrade executive, said in a statement that he was pleased the numbers showed “Nebraskans want a businessman and problem solver to represent them in the Senate.”
Someone needs to inform Pete that this is the primary election not the general.
In an unrelated story, Pete’s father, Joe Ricketts, just bought a $30 million penthouse in New York City.
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What does surprise me is that Don Stenberg, who skipped out on the debates, and hasn’t been running many ads at all, is still running within ten points of Ricketts. While Kramer, who has been keeping up with Ricketts in donations (not from his own pockets), is running in single digits?
That makes me not believe the poll… But I don’t have anything to compare it to, since this is the first actual polling of the primary I’ve seen.
In the same poll, Osborne had 44%, Heineman 43%, and Nabity 6%. Take it fwiw. But that’s the first poll I’ve seen on the race in months.
Pete Ricketts is going to New York three weeks before an election:
I was interested to read in the above mentioned OWH article that Pete Ricketts will be in New York holding a meet & greet with less than three weeks to go in the Republican primary battle. I have to, at the very least, credit Don Stenberg and David Kramer for meeting with Nebraskans in their final pushes to win the Republican nomination.
The following two paragraphs are from the above mentioned OWH article:
One of the first events to be held at the home will be a political one. Pete Ricketts, Joe’s son, will hold a meet-and-greet Monday night as part of his campaign for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate from Nebraska.
Trisha Meuret, a spokeswoman for Pete Ricketts’ campaign, said the gathering would be for friends and businesspeople the Rickettses know through Ameritrade. It is not a fundraiser, Meuret said.
And more polling to chew on:
Survey USA has Ben Nelson as the most popular Senator among his constituents, with a whopping 73% approval rating.
The Ricketts poll is as crooked as a three-dollar bill.
I don’t have the actual numbers (it’s a subscription only poll), but Rasmussen released a poll today that has Ricketts as the #1 Republican in the Senate race. Nelson still beats him 54-36.
Folks, this poll is legit. Rasmussen’s generally pretty accurate:
It’s subscriber only, but the Lincoln Journal-Star gives us the goods
Ricketts 52%
Stenberg 26%
Kramer 8%
And, in the governor’s race, our thoughts are confirmed… it’s a dead heat.
Heineman 44%
Osborne 43%
Nabity 5%
It is completely inaccurate to say “You should always be skeptical of internal polling.” Yes, you should be skeptical of internal polls, but no more so than you would be of “independent” polls. Candidates pay for polls all the time, and in fact, historically those polls are more accurate predictors of actual election results than independent polls (such as those commissioned by media outlets) *so long as they are conducted by a reputable polling firm.* Ricketts’ poll was conducted by Voter/Consumer Research, which was one of the three polling firms Bush-Cheney used in the last two presidential elections. Different pollsters have different opinions about methodology, such as whether you should interview registered voters or likely voters, and the definition of a likely voter. But no pollster worth their salt is going to release numbers they don’t believe are accurate, nor will they tolerate campaigns releasing fabricated or misleading data — and they will quit a campaign. Remember, pollsters do this for a living, and they won’t get clients if their credibility is compromised.
Put it this way: you should always be skeptical of internal polling that is leaked to the media. Thompson had an internal poll several weeks before the election leaked to the media that showed her polling within the (large) margin of error. Terry beat her handily in the general. Campaigns want their polls to be accurate, but they usually won’t leak them, letting independent pollsters do their jobs. Leaking an internal poll seems like a desperation move, so I’m really quite surprised at how well Ricketts is doing in an independent poll.
Interesting polling data looks like it’s being leaked at
http://politicsinnebraska.blogspot.com/