NE-Sen: Some More Numbers and Notes

Don Walton has some more numbers from the poll last week that showed Hagel’s vulnerability among Republicans. Among the key numbers:

  • As we discussed last week, 51% of Nebraskans believe it’s time to set a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq. According to the article, that includes 35% of Republicans.
  • Hagel’s favorability rating is at 51%. Fahey is at 54%, Bruning is at 61%, and Heineman at 70%. No numbers for Kleeb, Kerrey, or Daub, at least not in the article.

We’re still in a holding pattern for the Democrats, and hopefully we’ll know more as the summer comes along, but the key to this poll is just how big of a loser Iraq is for the Republicans - even in Nebraska. As we find ourselves a year away from the primaries, there’s still no predicting what Hagel’s going to do. I an interview with Bloomberg TV last week, he openly speculated about retiring from politics:

MR. HUNT: Well, what are the odds that you will get into that (Presidential) race? You’ve said you’ll decide later. But odds as of today?

SEN. HAGEL: I will. Well, I don’t know about odds, Al. I never get into that business. But I will make a decision on my political future in a few months. I have to. I have a second term coming to an end next year. And it will come down -

>MR. HUNT: Still seriously considering?

SEN. HAGEL: Well, I’m seriously considering - I hope - some options I might have. And one of those options is to leave politics for awhile. Maybe this is the right time to do it; 12 years in the Senate is a long time. It’s been a tremendous opportunity. Maybe there are some other things I could do to influence the world more effectively.

Every day we see different signs from Hagel. What’s interesting is that he seems to be in no hurry to make a decision. Does this mean that he’s already made his decision and he’s putting it off as long as possible before he announces it? Or does it mean that he’s genuinely conflicted about what he should do next? With speculation abound about Fred Thompson’s eventual (and seemingly imminent) entry into the race, is Hagel delaying to see if there is any opening for him in the Republican field? Time will tell. For us impatient political junkies, we’ll just have to speculate.

And what of Bruning? Having already filed papers with the FEC back in March, he has still yet to release any campaign fundraising figures, explaining to Don Walton, “I want to protect my donors from getting beat up as long as I can.” Perhaps, though I suspect that his fundraising numbers weren’t particularly strong for the first quarter given the two week window. When July 15 comes around, and we see the 2nd quarter numbers, the ability of Bruning to hang with Hagel will be tested.

In the meantime, Bob Kerrey has more cash-on-hand than either of them combined.

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