On the heels of fundraising numbers that left him near the bottom of the Republican field, John McCain announced the resignations of his campaign manager Terry Nelson and chief strategist John Weaver.

McCain has been burning money at a rapid pace, and let go about 50 staffers last week. Now he’s losing his top two campaign staffers, and has less cash on hand than Ron Paul.

At this point, it’s become clear that John McCain has no chance of winning the Republican nomination. His full-throated support of an immigration bill that was poison to the Republican base just sealed the deal. Republicans have known John McCain for a while now, and they just don’t like him.

It’s down to three candidates right now: Fred Thompson, Rudy Giuliani, and Mitt Romney. Giuliani’s the strongest general election candidate, but Republicans are going to be very wary of nominating someone who publicly advocates for a woman’s right to choose. Thompson is the conservative darling right now, though, oddly, his record in the Senate was very similar to that of John McCain. Meanwhile, Mitt Romney has shown no scruples about changing his position on a dime to pander to the Republican base - and the Republican base doesn’t seem to mind it much.

If I had to guess right now, I’d say Mitt Romney’s going to be the Republican nominee - he is looking strong in Iowa and New Hampshire, while Giuliani is going to have a lot of trouble with social conservatives. But six months ago, I thought McCain was going to win the nomination. So take it with a grain of salt.