Hagel Still Holding Off on Decision

Chuck Hagel spent some time at Bellevue University today, and inevitably got the question about his political future:

Sen. Chuck Hagel acknowledged today that many people already seem to assume he is intent on running for president in 2008.

“I get that reaction,” Hagel said after making brief remarks and answering audience questions at Bellevue University. “I just take it as a compliment, appreciate that they would have that much confidence in me to kind of assume that.”

The Nebraska Republican talked to reporters before addressing the audience of roughly 200, but did not hint at when he would make any announcement, saying only it would not come while he’s in Nebraska this week.

“We’ll make that decision one of these days, and I’ll let you know,” Hagel said.

Hagel’s been giving these kind of vague timelines for a while now, saying “a couple weeks” every couple of weeks on when he’s going to announce his decision. But he still hasn’t been raising any money, which is as real an indication as we can get of where his political intentions ultimately lie. Though his rhetoric and his positioning seem to be pointed toward a presidential bid, the money seems to show that he’s not running for anything in 2008. And his dodging of the presidential question is a way to keep himself relevant before he announces his retirement later on this year. We heard some rumors to this effect late last year. But again, it certainly would not surprise me if he decided to run for President.

With Mike Fahey being recruited by Democratic leadership to run for a possible open seat, Republicans will have to come up with a strong candidate for their nomination. But what seems to be shaping up is an all-out Republican fight - draining resources and resulting in a battered nominee and a fractured party. Hagel’s retirement presents an opportunity for the ultra-conservative wing of the party to exert its influence. Without a strong “establishment” candidate to unite the party machinery behind, Jon Bruning - a critic of Hagel and a supporter of Heineman’s opponent Tom Osborne in the primary - would have to be the favorite for the Republican nomination. Other rumored candidates, such as Lee Terry, Jeff Fortenberry, Hal Daub, and even Pete Ricketts, would make it an entertaining display to say the least.

The Republican Party, as it did in 2006, badly wants former Governor Mike Johanns to run, and avoid a costly nomination fight. Johanns would be the one candidate that would clearly have the implicit backing of the Hagel machine, since it is his machine, too. So far, there is little indication that Johanns is considering a run, while Bruning has basically all but announced. But it’s still early, Johanns could be convinced, and this may be part of the reason for Hagel’s delay.

As soon as Hagel makes his decision, we’ll see the field start to fill out, and I’d expect Fahey to run if Hagel retires. We’ll see how it all shapes out in the next couple of months.



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