In 38 hours, polls open on the east coast for the biggest, most watched primary contest in American history. There was a spate of new polls out this morning, and the results are clear – the Democratic race is breaking for Obama, and strongly.
First off, the biggest prize – California, and its 441 delegates:
Clinton – 41%
Obama – 45%
Obama +4
Source
Obama’s surge in California has been dramatic – just a week ago, Hillary held a healthy 15% lead there. Obama has been gaining over 1% a day since South Carolina. Needless to say, if Clinton loses Cali, she’s in big trouble. And as the talking heads say, as goes California, so goes the country.
Likewise, according to the same Zogby poll released this morning, Obama has surged in another big state just a few days ago seen as safe for Clinton, New Jersey:
Clinton – 43%
Obama – 42%
Clinton +1
Same in Arizona, where Clinton held a staggering lead of 20% not 2 weeks ago:
Clinton – 43%
Obama – 41%
Clinton +2
Though there’s not much public polling data on it, AZ may very well be indicative of the West in general. One wild card in the West though is Bill Richardson, who’s hanging out with Bubba Clinton today. However, after he cut a deal with the Obama camp in Iowa to put them over the top, I don’t see him endorsing Clinton. My guess is that he won’t endorse anyone, at least not before Super Tuesday.
When we look at the Midwest, the Obama surge continues in Missouri:
Clinton – 44%
Obama – 43%
Clinton +1
Hillary was ahead 19% there just 10 days ago.
To sum all of this up, I can safely say that the Clinton campaign is in a very precarious position. She only has a few “safe” states left, Obama’s been moving up at light speed as Super Duper Tuesday approaches, and he has $30 million more in the bank than her. Further, Clinton needs to wrap the race up on February 5th; the longer it continues, the better it is for Obama. This isn’t just because of money, but more importantly, because Democratic primary voters and super-delegates have begun to see him as the strongest candidate to beat McCain in November, as I pointed out a few weeks back. My money is now solidly on Obama winning the nomination without a floor fight, and then going on to win a landslide victory (35-40 out of 50 states, 57-62% of the popular vote) in November.
Zogby’s reputation is kind of iffy. But the Field Poll, which is considered the gold standard in California, has it 36-34 Clinton, a dead heat.
Things are looking very good for Obama. But momentum’s a tricky thing in politics. The number of undecided voters alone makes this anyone’s ballgame.
Yeah, but what does a 36-34 poll even mean? I can’t believe that there are 30% undecided. Even if there are, that doesn’t tell us anything about who is going to win.
12% were for “others” (the poll was taken from 1/25-2/1, so Edwards was in the sample for some of the days). 18% undecided. The California polls basically show Obama moving upward and Clinton remaining stagnant. That’s not a good sign for her.
Dave -
First off, the Field poll is bullshit; according to almost all other sources, Obama’s been moving very fast there, so a week-long sampling period isn’t an accurate snapshot. Secondly, and as Eric said, 30% are not undecided, and Edwards’ supporters have largely been going for Obama.
Finally, I don’t think there’s any way for Hillary to win the nomination if she doesn’t win big Tuesday, which was my main point. Anyone with a clue knows that any elected Dem in a swing or red state dreads the possibility of being identified with her – there’s a reason why Claire McCaskill, Kathleen Sebelius, Janet Napolitano, Tim Kaine, and Ben Nelson have all endorsed Obama. And of course Ted Kennedy gives him lots of credibility with the base. In short, she’s at a huge disadvantage with less money and fewer big-name surrogates, which is why I’m pretty certain that, barring an Obama sex scandal, he’ll be the nominee.
Please read about Barack Obama at:
http://www.freedomsenemies.com/_more/obama.htm
these are his own words from his books, family and friends. Think about what he says today and what he truly believes.
Jennifer,
Please do us all a favor and:
A) Stop spewing long-debunked bullshit.
B) Learn how to design a web page that doesn’t make my eyes bleed when I read it.
C) Get bent.
Thanks,
Management
As an aside, I should like to say that I’m never reading another poll ever again. That said, Obama did end up doing better than where he was at just a few weeks ago. So I’d say a floor fight is marginally more likely considering the final results rather than the polls, but – assuming he wins by a small margin in the delegate count, enough where the SDs could make a difference – I think this could be averted by his campaign leaking rumors of his intention to run as an independent. Even Clinton loyalists aren’t stupid enough to risk blowing up the party by throwing the race to Hillary. Though, since they support one of the most divisive, corrupt figures in American politics, whose nomination would be the political equivalent of Christmas morning to the GOP… One can’t rule that out entirely.
You know Obama supportershavemade my decision very easy for me. The personal attacks are lobbied at people who support Hillary especially if you are a person of color. I hear Obama insinuate that Hillary is running because she think it it owed to her, IF Obama leaks something as childish and as infantile as I will run as and independent if I don’t get the nod.
Talk about a sense of entitlement. Way to take your ball and go home. I also hear his supporters saying something similar about their vote. Yet they accusse Hillary and her supporters of not caring about the country.
I have heard Hillary say that we will go into convention united and come out united and take back the Whitehouse! To Hillary democrats taking back the Whitehouse is more important than being President.
I have heard nothing like that out of Obama’s mouth. Talk about the pot calling kettle black! I’m Caucusing for Hillary because at the end of the day it doesn’t mean a thing if in Jan we are swearing in a republican.
I encourage everyone to caucus on Saturday for Whomever you think is the best person to lead but most importantly, We should act like adults and realize that after all this is over it is still important for a Democrat to take back the Whitehouse!
Just to update the blog, Hillary won decisively in California. Proof that regardless of who endorses Obama, how much the momentum shifts; when people look at the facts and look at who has a better plan for America, Hillary wins.
“The personal attacks are lobbied at people who support Hillary especially if you are a person of color.”
Don’t see what race has to do with it. I have been attacked by quite a few HRC supporters who’ve implied I’m some sexist bigot for not supporting one of the most corrupt, divisive figures in American politics, however. I think this is why people get the feeling that she thinks she’s entitled. Or maybe it’s because she does think she’s entitled. Yeah, that’s probably it.
“IF Obama leaks something as childish and as infantile as I will run as and independent if I don’t get the nod. Talk about a sense of entitlement. Way to take your ball and go home.”
Umm, if Obama wins the delegate count, but Hillary tries to use her pull with SDs to steal the election, I hardly see how Obama would be to blame for averting disaster by employing such a tactic.
“Yet they accusse Hillary and her supporters of not caring about the country.”
If they’re prepared to throw the general to the GOP by nominating Hillary, they’re at least completely blind to how the Clintons play with those who aren’t Democratic loyalists (i.e., the people we have to get to vote for us to win in November).
“I have heard Hillary say that we will go into convention united and come out united and take back the Whitehouse!”
Not if she tries what I think she might try. Hell, even if she does win honestly, I would vote for McCain over her in any race, any time, any where. There’s a good 30 or 40 million Americans out there that feel the same way. And no, it’s not because I don’t want A woman as President, it’s because I don’t want THAT corrupt, unwise, warmongering woman as President.
“To Hillary democrats taking back the Whitehouse is more important than being President.”
Really? Then why hasn’t she dropped out?
“I have heard nothing like that out of Obama’s mouth. Talk about the pot calling kettle black!”
That’s because Obama isn’t as hyper-partisan as the Clintons are.
“I’m Caucusing for Hillary because at the end of the day it doesn’t mean a thing if in Jan we are swearing in a republican.”
I just figured out what you’re trying to imply – you think HRC is more electable than Obama?! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!!!!! Good one. At least I hope that’s a joke:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_clinton-224.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
“I encourage everyone to caucus on Saturday for Whomever you think is the best person to lead but most importantly, We should act like adults and realize that after all this is over it is still important for a Democrat to take back the Whitehouse!”
Agreed. If you think we need another neo-con militarist in the White House, if you like the idea of having to prove to unelected bureaucrats that you’ve bought health insurance, if you want another eight years of gridlock in DC, if you want another administration beholden to corporate lobbyists, if you think the rise of dynastic politics in the United States is an acceptable development, if you don’t think the US needs to move beyond the partisan squabbles of the 90’s, if you want unify the shattered GOP, and if you want to assure that many of the gains Democrats made in ‘06 are wiped out, by all means, Hillary Rodham Clinton is your candidate.