Been a while since I posted something about the national race, and things have changed a lot in the past few months. Here’s a rundown for those of you just tuning in.

The Democrats:

15 days out from Iowa, and the top three look neck-and-neck in the Hawkeye state.

Hillary Clinton: If she can’t win Iowa, she needs John Edwards to win, and needs to finish ahead of Obama. If she wins Iowa, it’s difficult to see her losing the nomination.

Barack Obama: The race is so close right now, that a win in Iowa could put Obama over the top, propel him into a win in New Hampshire and South Carolina, in to Super Tuesday.

John Edwards: The problem with expectations: Edwards has to win in Iowa. Even if he wins in Iowa, it’s difficult to see how much momentum that gives him in New Hampshire. An Edwards win in Iowa actually helps Clinton, because an Obama win would seriously injure her chances at winning the nomination.

Now, it’s very hard to see where things will go on February 5. One candidate could run the table or we could have a knockdown dragout fight on Super Tuesday. But if Hillary or Obama win both Iowa and New Hampshire, you’d have a hard time convincing me that they won’t win the nomination. The Democratic race right now is relatively easy to predict.

The Republicans: 

I’ll be the first to admit: there is no telling where the Republicans are going to go with this one. The momentum is difficult to predict, and there’s not a frontrunner at this point. Maybe Huckabee, but that depends where you look.

Rudy Giuliani: He’s done. Finished. Cooked. Even if it weren’t for an entire month of horrendous news cycles, (including being asked by Tim Russert: “Would you give your mistress Secret Service protection?”) he’s taking a nomination strategy that is as perplexing as it is maddening. He’s ignoring Iowa, tanking in New Hampshire, and expecting that by ignoring those states he can still win Florida and have enough momentum going into Super Tuesday to win the nomination. The right’s brief flirtation with Giuliani didn’t end because of his issue positions - they were willing to look past that - but because the former New York City mayor is a fatally flawed candidate.

Fred Thompson: I think we’ve all heard by now some variation on the joke: Fred Thompson’s campaign is on hold until the writer’s strike ends. He ran out of fresh material.

John McCain: Will they give him a second third fourth fifth sixth chance? I’m guessing not.

Mike Huckabee: He’s still got a few question marks. First: can he survive the attacks from Romney? So far, he’s doing a good job of staying above the fray. With just two weeks left and the holiday season keeping the air war at a low volume, you have to wonder if he’s peaked at just the right time. The biggest problem Huckabee has is that the corporate wing of the party will not accept him as a nominee. And in the end, they, not the evangelicals, control the Republican Party.

Mitt Romney: Win or lose in Iowa, Mitt Romney will be the choice of establishment Republicans simply because he’s their only alternative. There’s a decent argument that a loss in Iowa actually helps Romney if the GOP is as afraid of Huckabee as I think they are. Either way, Romney’s got the backing of the Bush family, it seems, so either he wins in Iowa and carries that momentum through to New Hampshire and Michigan, or he finishes second in Iowa but spins it as a positive. The rise of Huckabee has successfully lowered expectations to the point where if Romney finishes second in Iowa, he’ll still have a path to the nomination.