John McCain made a bet. He made a bet that by getting the tacit endorsement of George W. Bush, by being his #1 cheerleader for the war in Iraq (a role he quite enthusiastically shares with Joe Lieberman), he could overcome the reservations that conservatives have about him and win the nomination on inevitability alone and the strength of his warchest.

But the right isn’t about to forget about McCain-Feingold, which was signed into law five years ago yesterday, or his “Sister Souljah”-ing of Jerry Falwell during the 2000 campaign.

And, still 9 1/2 months away from the first actual contest, McCain isn’t getting much positive press lately.

First there was this gaffe as he resumed his “Straight Talk Express” tour:

The unthinkable has happened. Senator John McCain met a question, while sitting with reporters on his bus as it rumbled through Iowa today, that he couldn’t – or perhaps wouldn’t – answer.

Did he support the distribution of taxpayer-subsidized condoms in Africa to fight the transmission of H.I.V.?

What followed was a long series of awkward pauses, glances up to the ceiling and the image of one of Mr. McCain’s aides, standing off to the back, urgently motioning his press secretary to come to Mr. McCain’s side.

The upshot was that Mr. McCain said he did not know this subject well, did not know his position on it, and relied on the advice of Senator Tom Coburn, a physician and Republican from Oklahoma.

Then, the news that their fundraising isn’t going as well as expected. Granted, it could be an expectations game, but the fact that they’re downplaying expectations - and seem to be getting outraised by a moderate governor of Massachusetts who is polling in the single digits - doesn’t bode well for his campaign.

All the while, he keeps falling in the polls, with the most recent poll showing McCain down by 20 points to Rudy Giuliani, and only ahead of undeclared candidate Newt Gingrich by 4%.

But the last couple of days have just been rough for McCain.

First, there was the guy who taught McCain the hard way not to hijack images. For several hours yesterday, McCain’s Myspace page read:

Dear Supporters,

Today I announce that I have reversed my position and come out in full support of gay marriage… particularly marriage between passionate females.

Trivial, but it did make him a laughingstock across the net for a day. What wasn’t so trivial were these comments that made him appear hopelessly out of touch with reality:

“There are neighborhoods in Baghdad where you and I could walk through those neighborhoods, today.”

The news media tore the comments to shreds, each network (besides FOX, of course) having their war correspondent explain exactly why McCain was wrong.

So, what does that matter, right? This is a Republican primary, after all. Being hopelessly out of touch with reality when it comes to Iraq isn’t necessarily a dealbreaker.

The nail in the coffin for John McCain:

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) was close to leaving the Republican Party in 2001, weeks before then-Sen. Jim Jeffords (Vt.) famously announced his decision to become an Independent, according to former Democratic lawmakers who say they were involved in the discussions.

In interviews with The Hill this month, former Sen. Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) and ex-Rep. Tom Downey (D-N.Y.) said there were nearly two months of talks with the maverick lawmaker following an approach by John Weaver, McCain’s chief political strategist.

For folks who already don’t trust McCain, this is serious trouble. Does it mean his campaign is dead in the water? I don’t know, but after this, I wouldn’t bet on him getting the nomination.