I’ve been of the school of thought for some time now that John McCain would win the Republican nomination. That as the establishment candidate, as the most fervent supporter of Bush’s war, McCain would have the aura of inevitability to allow him to win the nomination despite his reputation as a “maverick.” With no significant challengers that could actually win a general election, John McCain would ride the “electability” argument to a relatively easy victory.

The religious right has been uncomfortable with McCain for a long time, stemming from his public rebukes of Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson back in 2000, and his role in the 2002 Campaign Finance Reform Act. So, conventional wisdom suggested that McCain’s biggest challenge would have come from the right.

Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney thought so – and has been trying in vain for the last several months to reposition himself as someone the evangelical base can get behind. But he’s got a couple of huge problems. He’s a Mormon, and half of religious conservatives have said they won’t vote for a Mormon. But more pressing: he was Governor of Massachusetts. He ran for Senate against Ted Kennedy in 1994, saying he would be more friendly to the gay community – than Ted Kennedy. He voted for Paul Tsongas for President in 1992. He ran for Governor in 2002 on a pro-choice platform. It made sense for him, of course – no way an anti-abortion Republican wins a race in Massachusetts – but it paints a picture that doesn’t look too good. One that the Republican Party used quite effectively against another Massachusetts politician in 2004.
While the Democratic field is turning into a three-person race between Hillary, Barack, and Edwards, the Republican field is quickly narrowing into a two-person race. And, suddenly, John McCain finds himself running well behind Rudy Giuliani.

Rudy Giuliani’s numbers are tremendous right now – the latest ABC/Wash. Post poll puts him at a 44-21% advantage over McCain. That number gets even better when Newt Gingrich (at 15%) is removed from consideration as a candidate. Almost all of Gingrich’s support goes to Giuliani, who leads McCain 53-23%. The only other candidate that registered above 2% was Romney, with 5%.

John’s given you the argument of why Giuliani can win earlier. The poll numbers right now look great for Giuliani. But will it last when primary voters find out where he stands?

Giuliani has very high favorables among Republicans, 84%. That number cannot go anywhere but down, but for now, it’s contributing greatly to his poll numbers.

Support for both McCain and Giuliani is incredibly soft: 61% of Giuliani supporters and 69% of McCain supporters say they only “somewhat” support their candidate.

46% of Republicans say they would be less likely to vote for Giuliani given his position on abortion and civil unions. Half of those voters say there is no chance they would vote for him.

And this is the Republicans’ pending disaster. Namely: their two leading candidates will not motivate the evangelical base. Rudy Giuliani presents the added bonus of tearing apart the Reagan coalition once and for all. Oh, and juicy scandals. Lots of ‘em.

Giuliani as the frontrunner may be the best thing that happened to McCain. It gets the target off his back and might make him the “lesser of two evils” candidate for right-wingers. I still can’t see Giuliani winning the nomination. We’ll see how it all plays out. But it’s going to be a bloody, dirty campaign.