The guy’s got nothing to run on. He was Mayor of New York for all of one month after 9/11. All he’s got to run on is the fact that he looks pretty good in a Yankees cap - that might have been enough in NYC but not with Republicans voters. I don’t care what the polls say - Giuliani’s campaign ends the moment Republican voters learn the first damn thing about him.

Like it or not, McCain’s position on Iraq has boosted his chances for securing the GOP nomination. The so-called “maverick” has become the champion of “stay the course.” No doubt, Republican voters will have trust issues with McCain, but they’ll fall in-line this fall if it still looks like he’s got any chance to win.

That’s why I think he has a shot. That and he’s leading in the polls right now, so like Hillary, there has to be some concession that he’s got a shot.

Trust me….I’m not giving Republican voters too much credit. But the history of nomination by annointment in the Republican Party leans heavily in McCain’s favor right now. I was a skeptic about McCain’s chances myself until the Republicans in Congress rallied around Bush’s escalation of the Iraq War. Now that they’ve gone out on that limb - all but 7 in the Senate and 15 in the House - the Republican leadership has totally tied their 2008 prospects to our achieving some minimal success in Iraq. McCain is the only candidate with the authority to admit “mistakes were made, but the principles were right, and I will do it better.”

Hagel might be in a position to offer a principled alternative for Republican voters if the Iraq situation has become an OUTRIGHT catastrophe. But, again, Giuliani’s got nothing. Romney…Huckabee…both are viable if Republicans can’t get over their trust issues with McCain, but McCain is covering all his bases to see that doesn’t happen and, with the collapse of George Allen, the GOP power structure seems to have made its peace with McCain receiving the Republican nomination.

Of course, if polls show McCain in a much weaker position in head-to-head contests with Democrats this fall - because of his position on Iraq - then I expect a true open season to develop. If the tide has truly turned against them, Republican voters will probably, in desperation, choose whoever’s performing best against HRC and our beloved Barack Hussein Obama. Whoever, that is, EXCEPT for Giuliani - who has no shot at the nomination whatsoever.

FUN FUN FUN - we should do this more often!

No, it’s not Giuliani’s baggage that’s the issue. It’s that he’s pro-choice, pro-gay, pro-gun control. There’s about as much likelihood of the Republicans nominating anyone who holds those positions as there is of the Democrats nominating Ben Nelson.

Giuliani will not get the religious right to vote for him. And they are too powerful of an influence within the Republican Party for him to win without them.

It’s 11 months out, John. A lot can change. But one thing that won’t change is that Giuliani is pro-choice. And the Republican Party is not.

Talking differently about the war may be a necessity for the Republicans because of the realities of the general electorate, but for the primaries, being perceived as anti-war will kill a candidate’s chances with Republicans - at least as it stands right now. It’s why there isn’t much room in the field for a candidate like Chuck Hagel, who has been a constant critic of the war, or Ron Paul, who actually voted against the war.

Giuliani being perceived as the frontrunner will help McCain, because the religious right will not swallow Giuliani as the nominee, but they might be able to stomach McCain. Or, McCain’s constant attacks on Giuliani from here until next January may help another candidate - Romney or a darkhorse like Huckabee - to rise above the fray.

A lot can happen between now and the Iowa caucuses, but that only means that the frontrunners now may not be the frontrunners in January or the nominee in February. McCain and others will point out Giuliani’s position on abortion frequently, and it will hurt him. How he overcomes it, I don’t know, but Kyle’s right that McCain has better credentials on the war than Giuliani.

1) I get it, Mr. NYC was a liberal gay loving abortionist in drag at one point who wanted to take away people’s guns. I get that there is going to be a lot for him to overcome.

2) But he starts with the trust of most Republicans, especially primary voters, already in the bag. His prominent speeches at the GOP Convention helped that, as did the constant campaigning on behalf of other repubs. McCain also has been wishy washy on being prochoice, and pro gun control, and didn’t support the federal marriage amendment at some point. Granted, WE know that McCain is much less liberal than Guliani, but most primary voters don’t. And McCain starts out in the position of no respect and no trust within the GOP Activist base. The other main frontrunner has video only a few years old of him arguing just how prochoice, progay, etc his is….with Ted Kennedy.

So the top 3 on the GOP side are all going to be having to face commercials that attack them as too liberal, as pro choice, etc. All 3 of them. At that point I think republican primary voters are likely to not weigh the merits of each individual attack, but instead just go with the person they trust the most and already like the most.

I’m not saying, and will never say, it’s a sure lock. But I am saying, and think someday someone is going to have to agree with me, that Guliani, who is leading the polls, has a chance to win. He’s also going to have the most or almost the most money. He’s also going to be doing the best in head 2 head matchups. He’s also a much much better campaigner than McCain. He has also gotten some really good staff. He’s got a shot at the GOP nomination. Seriously.

re: kyle, fun fun fun… no kidding! I like open threads that get interesting!

To Cody’s point about the evangelicals: I think it’s very likely that if Giuliani manages to win the nomination, one of two things happens:

- Evangelical voters stay home.
- A third party candidate runs on a “pro-life” platform.

I’d welcome a Giuliani candidacy. His scandalous past and his general sliminess make him a candidate that wouldn’t hold up well under public scrutiny. And the fact that he is pro-choice neutralizes what I believe is the one single issue that keeps us from gaining any ground in this state. If Giuliani somehow did manage to win the nomination, there’s no telling what the map would look like. But the ultimate hypocrisy of “Right to Life” groups would be put to the test.

Futhermore, I would like to point out that conservatives are quick to cut social programs to aid single mothers or health and human services, but they have the audacity to tell women that they cannot choose whether or not to terminate a pregnancy. Disgusting in my opinion.

It’s no surprise that none of the Republicans are acceptable choices - Republicans have never been much about governing, only about winning.