Comments on: How Nebraska Will Tip the ’08 Primary (Like A World Series Exhibition Match) http://www.unodemocrats.com/blog/2007/02/13/how-nebraska-will-tip-the-%e2%80%9908-primary-like-a-world-series-exhibition-match/ Fri, 16 May 2008 06:03:18 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.1 By: dave http://www.unodemocrats.com/blog/2007/02/13/how-nebraska-will-tip-the-%e2%80%9908-primary-like-a-world-series-exhibition-match/#comment-35347 dave Tue, 13 Feb 2007 18:57:32 +0000 http://www.unodemocrats.com/blog/2007/02/13/how-nebraska-will-tip-the-%e2%80%9908-primary-like-a-world-series-exhibition-match/#comment-35347 Great stuff, John. It's quite incredible to think that we're already in campaign mode, but I breathe this stuff, so I'm loving it. The "big three" are going to have to operate under the assumption that they'll be in it after Super Tuesday. So, during some of these trips to Iowa, or before they go out west, the candidates should make a stop here in Nebraska. That's something we haven't had in a very long time. Having a voice in the process, having candidates come speak to us, will help to energize our party. And - who knows - maybe we get enough people to see the eventual nominee that the 2nd District gives it's vote to a Democrat? ;) Great stuff, John. It’s quite incredible to think that we’re already in campaign mode, but I breathe this stuff, so I’m loving it.

The “big three” are going to have to operate under the assumption that they’ll be in it after Super Tuesday. So, during some of these trips to Iowa, or before they go out west, the candidates should make a stop here in Nebraska. That’s something we haven’t had in a very long time.

Having a voice in the process, having candidates come speak to us, will help to energize our party. And - who knows - maybe we get enough people to see the eventual nominee that the 2nd District gives it’s vote to a Democrat? ;)

]]> By: Eric http://www.unodemocrats.com/blog/2007/02/13/how-nebraska-will-tip-the-%e2%80%9908-primary-like-a-world-series-exhibition-match/#comment-35527 Eric Wed, 14 Feb 2007 15:56:05 +0000 http://www.unodemocrats.com/blog/2007/02/13/how-nebraska-will-tip-the-%e2%80%9908-primary-like-a-world-series-exhibition-match/#comment-35527 So could I participate in the caucus and then switch parties and vote in the Republican presidential primary in May? Not that I'd want to do that, I'm just wondering. So could I participate in the caucus and then switch parties and vote in the Republican presidential primary in May?

Not that I’d want to do that, I’m just wondering.

]]> By: karlee http://www.unodemocrats.com/blog/2007/02/13/how-nebraska-will-tip-the-%e2%80%9908-primary-like-a-world-series-exhibition-match/#comment-35558 karlee Wed, 14 Feb 2007 20:18:26 +0000 http://www.unodemocrats.com/blog/2007/02/13/how-nebraska-will-tip-the-%e2%80%9908-primary-like-a-world-series-exhibition-match/#comment-35558 You know that I love baseball analogies. You know that I love baseball analogies.

]]> By: dave http://www.unodemocrats.com/blog/2007/02/13/how-nebraska-will-tip-the-%e2%80%9908-primary-like-a-world-series-exhibition-match/#comment-35572 dave Wed, 14 Feb 2007 21:33:00 +0000 http://www.unodemocrats.com/blog/2007/02/13/how-nebraska-will-tip-the-%e2%80%9908-primary-like-a-world-series-exhibition-match/#comment-35572 "Anything can be explained in baseball analogies. Just give me something to analogize." “Anything can be explained in baseball analogies. Just give me something to analogize.”

]]> By: Your Guide To The 2008 Democratic Presidential Candidates at U. of Nebraska - Omaha College Democrats Blog http://www.unodemocrats.com/blog/2007/02/13/how-nebraska-will-tip-the-%e2%80%9908-primary-like-a-world-series-exhibition-match/#comment-35971 Your Guide To The 2008 Democratic Presidential Candidates at U. of Nebraska - Omaha College Democrats Blog Sat, 17 Feb 2007 01:36:34 +0000 http://www.unodemocrats.com/blog/2007/02/13/how-nebraska-will-tip-the-%e2%80%9908-primary-like-a-world-series-exhibition-match/#comment-35971 [...] you may have heard, Nebraska Democrats will hold a Presidential caucus on February 9, 2008. And while we’re still a year out, the Democratic field appears to be [...] […] you may have heard, Nebraska Democrats will hold a Presidential caucus on February 9, 2008. And while we’re still a year out, the Democratic field appears to be […]

]]> By: Sol http://www.unodemocrats.com/blog/2007/02/13/how-nebraska-will-tip-the-%e2%80%9908-primary-like-a-world-series-exhibition-match/#comment-36492 Sol Mon, 19 Feb 2007 22:35:23 +0000 http://www.unodemocrats.com/blog/2007/02/13/how-nebraska-will-tip-the-%e2%80%9908-primary-like-a-world-series-exhibition-match/#comment-36492 Thats some pretty prescient educated guesswork, there are a million possible variables that could throw a wrench in any number of candidates between now and then. Just a few off the top of my head: -Someone finds out that Hillary and/or Bill have gotten themselves caught in another weird mistake, some random intern says Bill sexually harassed her, whitewater type thing, etc. -Edwards loses more support, money and staff to Obama and completely loses his status as 'the other candidate'... and either vies for the VP slot again or just pushes through and hopes for a lucky break. -Obama (I'll try to be fair here, I'm a huge supporter) something comes out about him that makes people think his folksiness is an act, or he isn't able to convince enough people he's got the chops to run the country yet. -The war miraculously takes a turn for the better... would probably help Hillary in the primary, but would also make John McCain nearly impossible to beat in the general. -The Democrats in Congress aren't able to really get much of anything done and piss the moderates and independents off, possibly enough to throw their support in with a group like Unity '08 (a group trying to get one centrist Dem and one centrist Rep to be a separate independent ticket in '08). In which case the election could be decided by whether the presidential candidate for this group is a Democrat or a Republican... meaning which party it would steal the most votes from. This is essentially what happened to the Reps in '92, Bill Clinton almost assuredly would have lost had it not been for Perot stealing so many votes from Daddy Bush. Think of how hard to beat a Giuliani/Clark, Clark/Giuliani , Hagel/Clark, Clark/Powell or even McCain/Clark if McCain loses the Rep primary and is pissed off enough to jump ship... its happened before in history when so many people were so disaffected. If the Dems lose the centrist independents and some of the moderates by pandering too much to the left this becomes more and more a possibility. -Some other Third Party, Greenies, Libertarians, another random billionaire with a massive ego, joins the fray and tips the scale in the direction away from the party they siphen the most votes from. -Another terrorist attack hits the US... would help people like John McCain, Giuliani, Joe Biden & (shudders) Newt Gingrich, as well as hurt people percieved as less experienced &/or soft like Obama, Edwards, Hagel, etc... not sure what it would do to Hillary. Blah blah blah Thats some pretty prescient educated guesswork, there are a million possible variables that could throw a wrench in any number of candidates between now and then. Just a few off the top of my head:

-Someone finds out that Hillary and/or Bill have gotten themselves caught in another weird mistake, some random intern says Bill sexually harassed her, whitewater type thing, etc.

-Edwards loses more support, money and staff to Obama and completely loses his status as ‘the other candidate’… and either vies for the VP slot again or just pushes through and hopes for a lucky break.

-Obama (I’ll try to be fair here, I’m a huge supporter) something comes out about him that makes people think his folksiness is an act, or he isn’t able to convince enough people he’s got the chops to run the country yet.

-The war miraculously takes a turn for the better… would probably help Hillary in the primary, but would also make John McCain nearly impossible to beat in the general.

-The Democrats in Congress aren’t able to really get much of anything done and piss the moderates and independents off, possibly enough to throw their support in with a group like Unity ‘08 (a group trying to get one centrist Dem and one centrist Rep to be a separate independent ticket in ‘08). In which case the election could be decided by whether the presidential candidate for this group is a Democrat or a Republican… meaning which party it would steal the most votes from. This is essentially what happened to the Reps in ‘92, Bill Clinton almost assuredly would have lost had it not been for Perot stealing so many votes from Daddy Bush. Think of how hard to beat a Giuliani/Clark, Clark/Giuliani , Hagel/Clark, Clark/Powell or even McCain/Clark if McCain loses the Rep primary and is pissed off enough to jump ship… its happened before in history when so many people were so disaffected. If the Dems lose the centrist independents and some of the moderates by pandering too much to the left this becomes more and more a possibility.

-Some other Third Party, Greenies, Libertarians, another random billionaire with a massive ego, joins the fray and tips the scale in the direction away from the party they siphen the most votes from.

-Another terrorist attack hits the US… would help people like John McCain, Giuliani, Joe Biden & (shudders) Newt Gingrich, as well as hurt people percieved as less experienced &/or soft like Obama, Edwards, Hagel, etc… not sure what it would do to Hillary.

Blah blah blah

]]> By: john http://www.unodemocrats.com/blog/2007/02/13/how-nebraska-will-tip-the-%e2%80%9908-primary-like-a-world-series-exhibition-match/#comment-36498 john Mon, 19 Feb 2007 23:00:25 +0000 http://www.unodemocrats.com/blog/2007/02/13/how-nebraska-will-tip-the-%e2%80%9908-primary-like-a-world-series-exhibition-match/#comment-36498 I agree with all those possible things Sol... but while I have awful luck picking candidates to support (I chose Warner, then Feingold...just to have them both drop out), I'm pretty good at seeing trends. So if no big changes happen, I think this scenario has a decent shot at playing out. There's also a level of: this is the scenario we want to see play out (because it would be good for nebraska) and it's playing-out-potential depends on how much people believe NE will really matter (ie believe in it). Therefore, the more we talk about Nebraska as the Exhibition Match before the World Series... or some other much better metaphore someone else thinks of to explain it, the more likely we are to get Presidential Candidates to pay attention. I think if a big-three candidate did try to use Nebraska as a pivatol caucus, they could really get a lot of millage out of doing so. I agree with all those possible things Sol… but while I have awful luck picking candidates to support (I chose Warner, then Feingold…just to have them both drop out), I’m pretty good at seeing trends. So if no big changes happen, I think this scenario has a decent shot at playing out.

There’s also a level of: this is the scenario we want to see play out (because it would be good for nebraska) and it’s playing-out-potential depends on how much people believe NE will really matter (ie believe in it). Therefore, the more we talk about Nebraska as the Exhibition Match before the World Series… or some other much better metaphore someone else thinks of to explain it, the more likely we are to get Presidential Candidates to pay attention.

I think if a big-three candidate did try to use Nebraska as a pivatol caucus, they could really get a lot of millage out of doing so.

]]> By: Sol http://www.unodemocrats.com/blog/2007/02/13/how-nebraska-will-tip-the-%e2%80%9908-primary-like-a-world-series-exhibition-match/#comment-36609 Sol Tue, 20 Feb 2007 15:40:58 +0000 http://www.unodemocrats.com/blog/2007/02/13/how-nebraska-will-tip-the-%e2%80%9908-primary-like-a-world-series-exhibition-match/#comment-36609 I should've said this in my last post, but I didnt mean to say that I dont think Nebraska will get some good action, I was just saying that I wouldnt necessarily count on just the current big three being the only contenders by then. There are just plain too many variables, time for things to change, people to make mistakes, candidates to grow, etc. You said,"So if no big changes happen...", well big changes WILL happen. Its not a matter of IF, its a matter of when, what kind and who is positioned to benefit from those changes. I've never been wrong as far as who I thought would win the general, ever since Reagan when I was a little kid, heheh, but I have a history of choosing to side with underdogs, who often lose, in the primary. I think I'm so able to pick the winner in the general so accurately because I am a prototypical swing voter and its my type that win general elections for candidates... and am not able to accurately pick primary winners so well because I dont so much grasp the mentality of those that make up the biggest voting blocks there. I should’ve said this in my last post, but I didnt mean to say that I dont think Nebraska will get some good action, I was just saying that I wouldnt necessarily count on just the current big three being the only contenders by then. There are just plain too many variables, time for things to change, people to make mistakes, candidates to grow, etc. You said,”So if no big changes happen…”, well big changes WILL happen. Its not a matter of IF, its a matter of when, what kind and who is positioned to benefit from those changes.

I’ve never been wrong as far as who I thought would win the general, ever since Reagan when I was a little kid, heheh, but I have a history of choosing to side with underdogs, who often lose, in the primary. I think I’m so able to pick the winner in the general so accurately because I am a prototypical swing voter and its my type that win general elections for candidates… and am not able to accurately pick primary winners so well because I dont so much grasp the mentality of those that make up the biggest voting blocks there.

]]> By: dave http://www.unodemocrats.com/blog/2007/02/13/how-nebraska-will-tip-the-%e2%80%9908-primary-like-a-world-series-exhibition-match/#comment-36629 dave Tue, 20 Feb 2007 17:51:28 +0000 http://www.unodemocrats.com/blog/2007/02/13/how-nebraska-will-tip-the-%e2%80%9908-primary-like-a-world-series-exhibition-match/#comment-36629 By the time we get to Nebraska, I very much doubt that there will be any more than two legitimate candidates left. Whether or not Nebraska will be a pivotal contest will largely depend on Edwards' performance in Iowa, Nevada, and South Carolina. If he doesn't win at least one of those states, he will have to drop out and endorse one of the other candidates. These are supposed to be Edwards' strongest states, and if he can't win one of them, his electoral strategy is shot going into Super Tuesday. He probably wouldn't win a single state on February 5. If Edwards does win one or more of the early states, then he'll have some momentum going into Super Tuesday. I can't see more than one major candidate dropping out after Super Tuesday if there are three candidates remaining (remember, Democratic Primaries are <i>not</i> winner-take-all). The fact that we are only four days after Super Tuesday also means that a candidate facing pressure to drop out of the race could still rebound in Nebraska and point to it as a sign of life and a reason to keep going. By the time we get to Nebraska, I very much doubt that there will be any more than two legitimate candidates left. Whether or not Nebraska will be a pivotal contest will largely depend on Edwards’ performance in Iowa, Nevada, and South Carolina. If he doesn’t win at least one of those states, he will have to drop out and endorse one of the other candidates. These are supposed to be Edwards’ strongest states, and if he can’t win one of them, his electoral strategy is shot going into Super Tuesday. He probably wouldn’t win a single state on February 5.

If Edwards does win one or more of the early states, then he’ll have some momentum going into Super Tuesday. I can’t see more than one major candidate dropping out after Super Tuesday if there are three candidates remaining (remember, Democratic Primaries are not winner-take-all).

The fact that we are only four days after Super Tuesday also means that a candidate facing pressure to drop out of the race could still rebound in Nebraska and point to it as a sign of life and a reason to keep going.

]]>