Comments on: Pete Ricketts Buys His Way to First?

By: Dave Sund

Dave Sund — Thu, 20 Apr 2006 16:48:49 +0000

What does surprise me is that Don Stenberg, who skipped out on the debates, and hasn’t been running many ads at all, is still running within ten points of Ricketts. While Kramer, who has been keeping up with Ricketts in donations (not from his own pockets), is running in single digits?

That makes me not believe the poll… But I don’t have anything to compare it to, since this is the first actual polling of the primary I’ve seen.

By: Dave Sund

Dave Sund — Fri, 21 Apr 2006 01:45:17 +0000

In the same poll, Osborne had 44%, Heineman 43%, and Nabity 6%. Take it fwiw. But that’s the first poll I’ve seen on the race in months.

By: Joe

Joe — Fri, 21 Apr 2006 06:03:08 +0000

Pete Ricketts is going to New York three weeks before an election:

I was interested to read in the above mentioned OWH article that Pete Ricketts will be in New York holding a meet & greet with less than three weeks to go in the Republican primary battle. I have to, at the very least, credit Don Stenberg and David Kramer for meeting with Nebraskans in their final pushes to win the Republican nomination.

The following two paragraphs are from the above mentioned OWH article:

One of the first events to be held at the home will be a political one. Pete Ricketts, Joe’s son, will hold a meet-and-greet Monday night as part of his campaign for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate from Nebraska.

Trisha Meuret, a spokeswoman for Pete Ricketts’ campaign, said the gathering would be for friends and businesspeople the Rickettses know through Ameritrade. It is not a fundraiser, Meuret said.

By: Dave Sund

Dave Sund — Fri, 21 Apr 2006 18:17:58 +0000

And more polling to chew on:

Survey USA has Ben Nelson as the most popular Senator among his constituents, with a whopping 73% approval rating.

By: greg

greg — Sat, 22 Apr 2006 20:41:57 +0000

The Ricketts poll is as crooked as a three-dollar bill.

By: Dave Sund

Dave Sund — Wed, 26 Apr 2006 21:56:22 +0000

I don’t have the actual numbers (it’s a subscription only poll), but Rasmussen released a poll today that has Ricketts as the #1 Republican in the Senate race. Nelson still beats him 54-36.

By: Dave Sund

Dave Sund — Thu, 27 Apr 2006 05:56:44 +0000

Folks, this poll is legit. Rasmussen’s generally pretty accurate:

It’s subscriber only, but the Lincoln Journal-Star gives us the goods

Ricketts 52%
Stenberg 26%
Kramer 8%

And, in the governor’s race, our thoughts are confirmed… it’s a dead heat.

Heineman 44%
Osborne 43%
Nabity 5%

By: J.J.

J.J. — Thu, 27 Apr 2006 18:16:08 +0000

It is completely inaccurate to say “You should always be skeptical of internal polling.” Yes, you should be skeptical of internal polls, but no more so than you would be of “independent” polls. Candidates pay for polls all the time, and in fact, historically those polls are more accurate predictors of actual election results than independent polls (such as those commissioned by media outlets) *so long as they are conducted by a reputable polling firm.* Ricketts’ poll was conducted by Voter/Consumer Research, which was one of the three polling firms Bush-Cheney used in the last two presidential elections. Different pollsters have different opinions about methodology, such as whether you should interview registered voters or likely voters, and the definition of a likely voter. But no pollster worth their salt is going to release numbers they don’t believe are accurate, nor will they tolerate campaigns releasing fabricated or misleading data — and they will quit a campaign. Remember, pollsters do this for a living, and they won’t get clients if their credibility is compromised.

By: Dave Sund

Dave Sund — Thu, 27 Apr 2006 21:15:49 +0000

Put it this way: you should always be skeptical of internal polling that is leaked to the media. Thompson had an internal poll several weeks before the election leaked to the media that showed her polling within the (large) margin of error. Terry beat her handily in the general. Campaigns want their polls to be accurate, but they usually won’t leak them, letting independent pollsters do their jobs. Leaking an internal poll seems like a desperation move, so I’m really quite surprised at how well Ricketts is doing in an independent poll.

By: Brian

Brian — Mon, 01 May 2006 21:45:43 +0000

Interesting polling data looks like it’s being leaked at

http://politicsinnebraska.blogspot.com/