In honor of those who have nothing better to do than talk about Nebraska bloggers on the internet:
Archive for July, 2007
One of the most common negatives I hear about Hillary Clinton is how she would be a drag on the rest of the Democratic ticket - she has no coattails. It’s one that I happen to agree with, even though I believe she would still win.
In theory, Rudy Giuliani is the strongest Republican candidate. In theory, Fred Thompson has the most support of conservatives. In theory, John McCain has bipartisan appeal.
In a vacuum, any of these candidates would give Clinton or any of our candidates a tough fight. If Clinton is as unpopular as some think, she would drag us down enough to put our majority in jeopardy. But we are not operating in a vacuum.
69% of Americans - 93% of Democrats, 70% of independents, and even 38% of Republicans, disapprove of the war in Iraq. The vast majority of those Americans favor withdrawing American forces from Iraq - a position shared by almost all of the Democratic candidates and none of the legitimate Republicans.
Theoretically, Rudy Giuliani, a pro-choice Republican from New York, is their strongest candidate - I’d argue at this point the only one who could win in the current climate. But, again, there’s no predicting the religious right’s reaction to a pro-choice nominee, assuming that Giuliani can win the nomination. They may stay home. There’s no predicting the impact of the first female nominee, or the first African-American nominee, or the need to end this era of incompetence once and for all, on turnout in 2008.
So, what’s my point? A strategy of fear, the “electability” argument, isn’t going to work. The eventual Democratic nominee will win on their own merits.
And, just in case you’re still uneasy about our prospects in 2008, just remember that the “savior” of the Republican Party, Fred Thompson, is rumored to have only raised $3 million.
Hey, for once, I agree with the plurality of Republican primary voters. I wouldn’t vote for any of these guys, either!!
In a new AP/Ipsos Poll, 25% of Republican respondents say they are either undecided or would prefer someone other than the current field — more than the vote share of any actual candidates listed in the poll. Compare this to the Democratic side, where only 13% of respondents are undecided or prefer none of the above. In the horse-race numbers, Rudy Giuliani leads the GOP side with 21%, followed by Fred Thompson at 19%, John McCain at 15%, and Mitt Romney at 11%. Among Dems: Hillary Clinton 36%, Barack Obama 20%, Al Gore 15%, and John Edwards 11%.
Just the raw numbers for now:
NE-01 Jeff Fortenberry: $88K raised, $187K on hand.
NE-02 Lee Terry: $112K raised, $282K on hand.
NE-03 Adrian Smith: $99K raised, $132K on hand.
NE-03 Scott Kleeb: $3K raised, $70K on hand.
Kleeb quietly filed an amended report on June 4 so he could begin raising funds for a federal race in 2008. He began his fundraising push at the last couple of days of the quarter, so we won’t see real numbers from Kleeb until the fall, and we’ll likely have a very good idea what he’ll be running for by then.
The lesson from Lee Terry? We need to get moving. Last year was a triumph for the ability of grassroots to overcome a massive fundraising disadvantage, but I’d be lying if I said it wouldn’t have been a whole lot easier if Jim Esch raised a bit more money. Most of us here are still pretty convinced that he’s running for reelection, and I don’t think Terry’s going to overlook us this time around, so it’s time to gear up.
Which brings me to Fortenberry. Though I don’t have my ear to the ground in the 1st District as much as here in the 2nd, I wonder who is going to step up and energize Democrats out there the way Kleeb and Esch did in their districts in 2006. There should be no reason why we can’t compete in every federal race this year. Just need someone who’s not afraid to try something a little different.
A couple of weeks ago, Jon Bruning released his Q2 fundraising numbers, coming in at over $720,000 for the quarter, a very good number for a primary challenger.
Now, incumbent Republican Senator Chuck Hagel, who two weeks ago said that his campaign would be “well beyond” the amount raised by Bruning, has clocked in at $387,000, a large portion of that coming from a May fundraiser featuring Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.
The conventional wisdom crystallizing on the ground here is that Hagel is blocking for Johanns - though it’s unclear if Johanns will get in the race, and the longer he waits, the stronger Bruning looks.
As we move closer to the fall, expect some movement one way or the other.
From the Chicago Tribune:
The family that founded discount broker TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. has joined the list of potential bidders for the Chicago Cubs, the Tribune has learned.
Sources close to the situation said the Ricketts family of Omaha and Chicago has signed a non-disclosure agreement with Cubs owner Tribune Co. and is readying the application Major League Baseball requires of all parties wishing to bid on one of its franchises.
The Ricketts group is being led by Thomas Ricketts, the 41-year-old founder and chief executive of Chicago-based Incapital Holdings LLC, an investment banking firm.
Yeah. Looks like Pete Ricketts’ little brother wants to buy the Cubs. God help us all.
Wednesday, the House of Representatives passed an overhaul of student aid, slashing interest rates on student loans, raising the pell grant limit, and adding loan forgiveness provisions for public servants.
Not surprisingly, our “representatives” in Congress voted against the bill, which also cut federal subsidies to large lenders such as Nelnet, the huge Republican contributor based in Lincoln, Nebraska, that got away with swindling taxpayers out of $300 million, and Sallie Mae.
Just as a reminder, when the issue came up in January, Lee Terry voted for cutting interest rates, in part because he said he remembered how difficult it is to pay for college. (Yeah, I’m sure Lee Terry, Jr. ever had to worry about student loans). Evidently, there’s no such empathy this time around, only concern over how his biggest contributors aren’t going to be able to exploit students and taxpayers quite so easily anymore.
Not that it should come as any surprise, of course, but Lee Terry, Adrian Smith, and Jeff Fortenberry have long since abandoned anything but blind partisan loyalty.
On the heels of fundraising numbers that left him near the bottom of the Republican field, John McCain announced the resignations of his campaign manager Terry Nelson and chief strategist John Weaver.
McCain has been burning money at a rapid pace, and let go about 50 staffers last week. Now he’s losing his top two campaign staffers, and has less cash on hand than Ron Paul.
At this point, it’s become clear that John McCain has no chance of winning the Republican nomination. His full-throated support of an immigration bill that was poison to the Republican base just sealed the deal. Republicans have known John McCain for a while now, and they just don’t like him.
It’s down to three candidates right now: Fred Thompson, Rudy Giuliani, and Mitt Romney. Giuliani’s the strongest general election candidate, but Republicans are going to be very wary of nominating someone who publicly advocates for a woman’s right to choose. Thompson is the conservative darling right now, though, oddly, his record in the Senate was very similar to that of John McCain. Meanwhile, Mitt Romney has shown no scruples about changing his position on a dime to pander to the Republican base - and the Republican base doesn’t seem to mind it much.
If I had to guess right now, I’d say Mitt Romney’s going to be the Republican nominee - he is looking strong in Iowa and New Hampshire, while Giuliani is going to have a lot of trouble with social conservatives. But six months ago, I thought McCain was going to win the nomination. So take it with a grain of salt.
Two members of UNO Democrats, Megan and Trisha, were featured in a World-Herald article about the Chris Dodd-Paul Simon event in Council Bluffs this past weekend. Let’s hear it for our quotable members!
On Meet The Press today, Chuck Hagel ruled out a bid for President as an independent.
He gave more cryptic answers when asked about his political plans:
“You try to keep as many options open for yourself in life as you can. And you try to be in a position where you’ve got some opportunities,” Hagel said.
“I also have said and said this when I first ran for the Senate after I got elected in 1996 that 12 years, two terms may be enough and that’s another option,” Hagel said.
“And then if there might be a place for me along the presidential road somewhere to try to have some influence and change the course of this country, then I’ll look at that. But the decision needs to be made soon and I’ll make it soon,” he added.
It’s really difficult to tell exactly where Hagel’s leaning right now. He clearly wants to have influence on the national scene, but he’s blown any chance of winning a Republican nomination for President by making sense on Iraq. And he’s in an increasingly vulnerable position here at home, as well. A primary challenger raising $700,000 in Q2 is very serious, indeed. It may be that by attempting to keep all of his options open, Hagel has shut the door on all of his options.
On the surface, Hagel seems like the ideal candidate for the Republicans to separate their party from the failures of George W. Bush in Iraq. But the GOP is increasingly a Cult of Bush, and Hagel’s apostasy on the Iraq War will not be easily forgiven by primary voters. He has zero chance of winning the Republican nomination.
An independent candidacy would be a fool’s errand, as Hagel would lack the donor base to mount a respectable campaign that would fare any better than Ralph Nader or Michael Badnarik in 2004. In other words, there’s even less of a chance that Hagel becomes President if he runs as an independent.
It seems that Hagel’s goal is relevance as he finalizes what, precisely, his plans will be in 2008. A chance at the Vice Presidency or a plum position in the next administration is probably his most likely avenue, but how he gets there is anyone’s guess.
