Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post is ready to call the Nebraska Senate race one of the top 10 races likely to change hands in 2008:

8. Nebraska (R): No one we talk to thinks Sen. Chuck Hagel (R) is going to run for reelection to the Senate. Say what you will about AG Jon Bruning (too ambitious, too soon), he is a hard-charger and poses serious problems for Hagel given the incumbent’s opposition to the war in Iraq — a position not widely held among Republican base voters. If Hagel doesn’t run for reelection, Democrats feel confident that Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey (D) would jump in and run a campaign in the mold of successful Nebraska Democrats like Ben Nelson, Bob Kerrey and Jim Exon. We’re intrigued by a Bruning-Fahey general-election match-up, but Nebraska is still one of the rubiest red states in America, so we can’t justify the race being any higher on the Line. (Previous ranking: N/A)

After April presented a bleak picture, things have brightened up quite a bit. The candidates are all moving forward as if Chuck Hagel is not running for reelection. Whether or not it is true, the institutional players in the Republican Party presume that it is. This presents a difficult challenge for Hagel should he choose to enter the race later on this year. He clearly doesn’t want to shut any doors at this point, but signs are starting to point toward a different Republican carrying the banner in 2008.

We’ll see how it all plays out, but this is our best opportunity in years to make gains for the Democratic Party in Nebraska. Let’s take it.

The arrogance and conceit of Nebraska Republicans is really quite disturbing sometimes. Asked if he could beat Bob Kerrey in a general election, Bruning responded that yes, of course he could, because “I don’t believe Nebraskans want another carpetbagger,” and “his record would be so easy to assail.”

That’s a record, by the way, that starts with Kerrey’s service in Vietnam before Jon Bruning was even born. As governor of Nebraska while Bruning was still in high school. And as a popular United States Senator while Jon Bruning was a young, arrogant liberal law student at the University of Nebraska.

Though Bruning has taken a 180-degree turn in his positions in the last dozen years, the arrogance remains, which is why he apparently felt the need to say that it would be “so easy” to beat Kerrey.

Since Bruning knows no other insult than “carpetbagger,” (one wonders what he’ll say if Jeff Fortenberry gets in the race), it’s clear he’s going to be out of his league if he tries to take on Bob Kerrey head-to-head. Kerrey gave us a sampling of the kind of smackdown Bruning can expect in today’s Lincoln Journal Star:

“I don’t think gratuitous insults are necessary,” Kerrey said. “I’m not a candidate. I’m a taxpayer in Nebraska, paying my fair share of Jon Bruning’s salary.”

As for Bruning’s suggestion that Hagel is not a Nebraskan, Kerrey said: “Chuck’s not a carpetbagger. He’s working like heck for Nebraskans.

“It seems hypocritical to whack him for not supporting the president on Iraq and whack him for supporting the president on immigration.”

It appears Bruning wants to “be with the president when it’s popular and not be with him when it’s not,” Kerrey said.

Course, Kerrey means popular among Republicans, because, let’s face it, Bush isn’t very popular among anyone else these days.

Apparently, judging by Jon Bruning’s rhetoric lately, and his meeting with the New York Sun’s editorial staff to tip the off to his impending announcement, he’s made a calculated decision that his campaign is going to be all about running against Chuck Hagel. It’s a calculated gamble on Bruning’s part. For one thing, we’re not sure if Hagel’s even going to be running.

But more than that, Bruning appears to be positioning himself as the extreme right-wing candidate in the Republican Party at the same time the state as a whole seems to be embracing more moderate positions on the issues of the day. It might win him the nomination - in fact, for the primary, it’s positioned him as the leading candidate assuming Hagel doesn’t run - but it’s going to hurt him badly when we get to the general election.

Bruning’s attacks on Hagel have been almost exclusively about the war in Iraq. Hagel’s forceful criticism of the President’s policy in Iraq has earned him disdain among Republicans in Nebraska, and Bruning’s trying to capitalize on that. Unfortunately for Bruning, there’s still a lot of Republicans, and even more Nebraskans, who have a great amount of respect for Chuck Hagel, and Bruning’s going to alienate a lot of those people if he continues to run as the “anti-Hagel.”

But it’s clear why Jon Bruning is doing it this way: he doesn’t have anything to run on. We’ve already gone through this race in 2006, with the Republican saying that absolute loyalty to Republican orthodoxy was the most important consideration for voters. That candidate lost his race by a landslide.

I feel confident that given the choice between a Democrat with an exemplary record of public service, and Jon Bruning, the people of Nebraska will choose the former every time. The candidate who wins this race is the one who makes the best case for their own ideas.

UPDATE: I can’t believe I’m going to actually say this, but check out Leavenworth Street’s take on Bruning’s announcement. It made me laugh.