Archive for February, 2007

Your New City Council Districts

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This is the temporary proposal favored by the Omaha City Council for redistricting to include Elkhorn. The most significant changes: Dan Welch takes over the southern half of Elkhorn; Franklin Thompson takes over the northern half; Jim Suttle’s district extends west to I-680 between Blondo and Dodge; Jim Vokal’s district moves north to include NoDo and Creighton.

Suttle favors a plan to add at least one more seat to the City Council, and the Legislature is considering a bill to add two seats. If it passes, these proposed boundaries will be thrown out, and a new plan will be drawn up. But the city council’s proposal doesn’t even attempt to reach out to the newest citizens of Omaha, splitting the Elkhorn community in half between two districts. It only makes sense that as the city grows, we make sure the city council continues to be responsive to us. That gets more and more difficult as they represent more and more people.

We’ll see how it all plays out, though my own guess says that LB 405 has a good chance of passing, and these districts will look very different.

The Republicans’ Pending Disaster

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I’ve been of the school of thought for some time now that John McCain would win the Republican nomination. That as the establishment candidate, as the most fervent supporter of Bush’s war, McCain would have the aura of inevitability to allow him to win the nomination despite his reputation as a “maverick.” With no significant challengers that could actually win a general election, John McCain would ride the “electability” argument to a relatively easy victory.

The religious right has been uncomfortable with McCain for a long time, stemming from his public rebukes of Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson back in 2000, and his role in the 2002 Campaign Finance Reform Act. So, conventional wisdom suggested that McCain’s biggest challenge would have come from the right.

Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney thought so - and has been trying in vain for the last several months to reposition himself as someone the evangelical base can get behind. But he’s got a couple of huge problems. He’s a Mormon, and half of religious conservatives have said they won’t vote for a Mormon. But more pressing: he was Governor of Massachusetts. He ran for Senate against Ted Kennedy in 1994, saying he would be more friendly to the gay community - than Ted Kennedy. He voted for Paul Tsongas for President in 1992. He ran for Governor in 2002 on a pro-choice platform. It made sense for him, of course - no way an anti-abortion Republican wins a race in Massachusetts - but it paints a picture that doesn’t look too good. One that the Republican Party used quite effectively against another Massachusetts politician in 2004.
While the Democratic field is turning into a three-person race between Hillary, Barack, and Edwards, the Republican field is quickly narrowing into a two-person race. And, suddenly, John McCain finds himself running well behind Rudy Giuliani.

Rudy Giuliani’s numbers are tremendous right now - the latest ABC/Wash. Post poll puts him at a 44-21% advantage over McCain. That number gets even better when Newt Gingrich (at 15%) is removed from consideration as a candidate. Almost all of Gingrich’s support goes to Giuliani, who leads McCain 53-23%. The only other candidate that registered above 2% was Romney, with 5%.

John’s given you the argument of why Giuliani can win earlier. The poll numbers right now look great for Giuliani. But will it last when primary voters find out where he stands?

Giuliani has very high favorables among Republicans, 84%. That number cannot go anywhere but down, but for now, it’s contributing greatly to his poll numbers.

Support for both McCain and Giuliani is incredibly soft: 61% of Giuliani supporters and 69% of McCain supporters say they only “somewhat” support their candidate.

46% of Republicans say they would be less likely to vote for Giuliani given his position on abortion and civil unions. Half of those voters say there is no chance they would vote for him.

And this is the Republicans’ pending disaster. Namely: their two leading candidates will not motivate the evangelical base. Rudy Giuliani presents the added bonus of tearing apart the Reagan coalition once and for all. Oh, and juicy scandals. Lots of ‘em.

Giuliani as the frontrunner may be the best thing that happened to McCain. It gets the target off his back and might make him the “lesser of two evils” candidate for right-wingers. I still can’t see Giuliani winning the nomination. We’ll see how it all plays out. But it’s going to be a bloody, dirty campaign.

Taking A Trip Back…

There’s not a whole lot to write about at the moment, so I thought I’d put this up today. This is what our website looked like 2 1/2 years ago:

unodemocrats.com - Fall 2004

UNO Democrats Blog - 2004

Vilsack Vanquished

Remember, remember the… 23rd of February. Okay, well it doesn’t quite have the same ring to it. The V for Vilsack campaign is over:

Former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack said Friday he is dropping out of the 2008 Democratic race for president.

Vilsack’s campaign lasted 15 weeks.

“The reality is that this process has become … about money, a lot of money,” the former two-term governor told reporters.

Vilsack, a harsh critic of the Iraq war, was considered a long shot for gaining the Democratic Party’s nomination. He faced stiff competition, notably from Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois.

It’s too bad, really. Natalie Portman would have been a kickass running mate. I suppose the folks looking for totalitarian campaign logos will have to turn to John McCain, now.

Hagel Trails Clinton, Obama In National Poll

I promised myself I’d take a break from writing about Chuck Hagel, but this caught my eye:

Illinois Senator Barack Obama (D) leads Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel (R) by 16 percentage points in the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. The Election 2008 poll, part of a series looking at all potential match-ups, shows Obama attracting 50% of the vote to Hagel’s 34%.

New York Senator Hillary Clinton (D) also leads Hagel, but her eight-point advantage is not as commanding as Obama’s. A Clinton-Hagel match shows the Democrat on top 48% to 40%.

Hagel, despite his high profile on the Sunday talk shows and nightly news, is still relatively unknown among the general public. His numbers against Clinton and Obama actually compare quite favorably to Republican candidate Mitt Romney, who trails Obama 50-36%, and Clinton 51-41%.

To my knowledge, this is the first poll that measured Hagel’s standing among the general electorate. There’s still no indication if he will run or not, but the numbers seem to argue that he’d be just as viable as any other Republican (depending on how viable any Republican is by 2008). It pokes a few holes in the “electability” argument against either Obama or Clinton, though, as they both do consistently well in the national polls.

Elkhorn Loses Annexation Fight

Breaking News:

The U.S. Supreme Court has denied Elkhorn’s request that the annexation be frozen, shattering any remaining hope Elkhorn had of staving off annexation.

“I have always been confident that the City of Omaha’s annexation of Elkhorn and the additional sanitary improvement districts would succeed,” Mayor Mike Fahey said in a statement. “We will provide the citizens of the annexed areas with the same high quality city services currently delivered to the citizens of Omaha.”

Which, of course, is an excuse to bring back the classic:

Related Posts:

Welcome To Omaha… Elkhorn (1/12/2007).

Omaha vs. Elkhorn: An Annexation Altercation (2/24/2005).

Is Compromise Possible On OPS?

State Senator, and friend of UNO Democrats, Gwen Howard has proposed a compromise plan on the Omaha school dispute:

The Howard plan adopts several ideas from Sen. Ron Raikes, committee chairman and author of last year’s learning community law:

- School districts would cooperate under a formal governance structure called a learning community.

- That overarching entity would be run by board members publicly elected from voting districts. Howard proposes 12 board members from six proportional districts, with each election district containing parts of at least two school districts.

- The learning community would merge functions with two existing metro-area Educational Service Units.

- A common tax base would fund local schools.

Howard’s proposal also takes ideas from the superintendents:

- The OPS breakup would be repealed.

- School districts would use current state laws about cooperative ventures to create an integration program.

- Two advisory boards - one for superintendents and one focused on student achievement - would be created.

The seemingly universal agreement among the legislature is that the OPS breakup needs to be repealed. It was a recklessly irresponsible action by the unicameral to vote for Chambers’ amendment - a knee-jerk response to “stick it to” Omaha. (Howard, to her credit, was one of the few senators to vote against both the amendment and the bill). It was signed into law by Dave Heineman, a cowardly decision that unfortunately was not remedied by the voters in May or November. LB 1024 predictably invited legal action, and it was that legal action that precipitated the current need for compromise.

The superintendents’ plan has been “status quo.” They want to repeal the OPS breakup, and operate within the structure of the “learning community.” But without a shared tax-base, and with no real teeth to the integration policy, the learning community would not have any real effect on the current disparity between OPS schools and other Omaha-area schools. Though race plays a large part in this dispute, it is economics that drives the conversation. And for the sake of compromise, some of these superintendents are going to have to swallow their pride and “share the wealth,” so to speak.

I don’t know if there is an easy solution to this issue, but it’s an issue that must be dealt with. The longer this drags out, the more it hurts Omaha’s schools. LB 1024 was an embarrassing episode for this state and this community. Whether this legislature repeats the mistakes of the past, or resolves the dispute, will go a long way toward determining its legacy.

Related Posts:

One City. Three Districts. One Constitutional Mess. (4/19/2006).

Hagel Still Holding Off on Decision

Chuck Hagel spent some time at Bellevue University today, and inevitably got the question about his political future:

Sen. Chuck Hagel acknowledged today that many people already seem to assume he is intent on running for president in 2008.

“I get that reaction,” Hagel said after making brief remarks and answering audience questions at Bellevue University. “I just take it as a compliment, appreciate that they would have that much confidence in me to kind of assume that.”

The Nebraska Republican talked to reporters before addressing the audience of roughly 200, but did not hint at when he would make any announcement, saying only it would not come while he’s in Nebraska this week.

“We’ll make that decision one of these days, and I’ll let you know,” Hagel said.

Hagel’s been giving these kind of vague timelines for a while now, saying “a couple weeks” every couple of weeks on when he’s going to announce his decision. But he still hasn’t been raising any money, which is as real an indication as we can get of where his political intentions ultimately lie. Though his rhetoric and his positioning seem to be pointed toward a presidential bid, the money seems to show that he’s not running for anything in 2008. And his dodging of the presidential question is a way to keep himself relevant before he announces his retirement later on this year. We heard some rumors to this effect late last year. But again, it certainly would not surprise me if he decided to run for President.

With Mike Fahey being recruited by Democratic leadership to run for a possible open seat, Republicans will have to come up with a strong candidate for their nomination. But what seems to be shaping up is an all-out Republican fight - draining resources and resulting in a battered nominee and a fractured party. Hagel’s retirement presents an opportunity for the ultra-conservative wing of the party to exert its influence. Without a strong “establishment” candidate to unite the party machinery behind, Jon Bruning - a critic of Hagel and a supporter of Heineman’s opponent Tom Osborne in the primary - would have to be the favorite for the Republican nomination. Other rumored candidates, such as Lee Terry, Jeff Fortenberry, Hal Daub, and even Pete Ricketts, would make it an entertaining display to say the least.

The Republican Party, as it did in 2006, badly wants former Governor Mike Johanns to run, and avoid a costly nomination fight. Johanns would be the one candidate that would clearly have the implicit backing of the Hagel machine, since it is his machine, too. So far, there is little indication that Johanns is considering a run, while Bruning has basically all but announced. But it’s still early, Johanns could be convinced, and this may be part of the reason for Hagel’s delay.

As soon as Hagel makes his decision, we’ll see the field start to fill out, and I’d expect Fahey to run if Hagel retires. We’ll see how it all shapes out in the next couple of months.

Unicam to Consider Increasing Size of City Council

News from the Omaha World Herald:

LINCOLN - Elkhorn residents would get a bigger voice in Omaha city government under a bill advanced Tuesday to the full Legislature.

Legislative Bill 405 would add two members to the City Council, increasing the total to nine, and require that district boundaries be redrawn. The new members would be appointed until their successors could be elected in May 2009.

Here’s the text of LB 405, if you are interested. The council members would be appointed by a majority vote of the city council.

It’s worth noting that Jim Suttle first proposed this idea, and testified at the hearing in favor of Sen. Pedersen’s bill. We had a great discussion about this when the idea first came up (link below), and now that it’s moving closer to reality, I’m wondering what everyone thinks of it.

Related Posts:
Welcome To Omaha… Elkhorn (1/12/2007)
Additional City Council District (10/26/2005)

What’s at Stake in Lincoln

This weekend, we will be going down to Lincoln with NYD to help out Chris Beutler in his race for mayor. (See the calendar for more details). Until he was term-limited out last year, Beutler spent 24 years in the Nebraska Legislature serving the people of central Lincoln.

He’s been a champion of campaign finance reform in this state, leading the charge and helping Nebraska enact a public financing system that attempts to level the playing field for our elections. He led the charge to hold Regent David Hergert accountable for his violations of campaign finance law.

Chris Beutler has been a progressive force in this state for almost 30 years, and he would be a great mayor for the city of Lincoln.

His Republican opponent, Ken Svoboda, is one of the most toxic personalities in Nebraska politics, who in the campaign for City Council in 2005 benefited from deliberate attempts at character assassination against Democratic candidates Terry Werner and Dan Marvin. He’s at it again, and the primary isn’t until April 3.

Svoboda started running for mayor the very minute he won his race for City Council in 2005, perhaps even before that. He’s been part of the problem for years in Lincoln, and now pretends that he can be part of the solution. Lincoln does not deserve to be subjected to the kind of “leadership” that Svoboda promises. Chris Beutler will provide the leadership necessary for Lincoln to grow and prosper.

What happens in Lincoln affects us all. A strong city of Lincoln helps Omaha, and helps the state of Nebraska. A strong Democratic mayor helps the Democratic Party. And the status quo is simply not acceptable any longer.

So, let’s help out our friends in Lincoln and give Chris Beutler the push he needs to win in May.



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